How I’d Explain Expected Lifespan and Centenarians to a 5th Grader
(and a Big Takeaway for Most of Us)
Over the past few years, I’ve developed a strong interest in longevity, and as a result, I’ve learned a lot about centenarians.
Centenarians are people who have lived to be over a hundred years old (reportedly less than 0.01% of the world’s population as of 2020).
Researchers like Dan Buettner have studied and documented centenarians’ lifestyle habits extensively.
The common understanding has been they lead more traditional, almost rural lifestyles and are more concentrated in certain regions of the world known as the Blue Zones (although there is new research disputing this).
Centenarian lifestyle and genetics
Initially, I believed that their lifestyle was the only explanation for their ability to live past a hundred. Clearly, there must be something or a set of things they’re doing that the rest of us aren’t.
While their lifestyle habits do play a large part in promoting a long lifespan and health span, I’ve recently learned there’s a strong genetic component involved in living past a hundred.
This makes sense for two reasons:
Very few people reach a hundred even with a healthy lifestyle
There have been reported cases of people who reach a hundred even with an unhealthy lifestyle
So, let’s assume there’s a lifestyle component and a genetic component.
Simplifying expected lifespan
The following is how I’d explain my theory on expected lifespan and centenarians to someone who understands basic arithmetic, like a 5th grader.
To simplify the lifestyle component, imagine a numerical scale representing how healthy one’s lifestyle is, ranging from 1 to 10.
Someone with an ideal lifestyle might score a 10, while the unhealthiest person on earth would score a 1.
Let’s assume this lifestyle component is worth about 85 years. For example, if you practice a perfectly healthy lifestyle, you might live to 85, while someone with a less healthy lifestyle might only reach 50 or 60. Obviously, this is not a blanket statement because there are outliers on both ends.
The genetic factor
Then you have the genetic component, or the centenarian gene, which is binary—you either have it or you don’t.
That gives you an extra 20 years of healthspan and therefore lifespan.
Because what I’ve learned about centenarians is they’re still dying from the same causes and diseases as the rest of us. But somehow, the onset of these diseases for centenarians is about 20 years later than everybody else.
Doing the math, somebody who has the genetic component and is living a perfectly healthy lifestyle could easily make it past 100.
And even those people who have the genetic component but aren’t living perfectly healthy lifestyles could still make it into their 80s or 90s.
Your takeaway
As for the majority of us without that gene, it’s imperative to practice a healthy lifestyle to get as close as we can to that ideal score.
That’s not to say that there won’t be technological breakthroughs that could alter our genetics and help us live longer in the near future. These advancements are accelerating quickly with technology and AI.
But right now, this is my best take on the reality of lifespan and health span.
I would welcome your thoughts and would love to hear what you think about this theory.
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